CGSR Heuristic Questions

• Are the truths we seek found more in simplicity or complexity?
• If we are right at the wrong time, are we right or are we wrong?
• Which is more dominant, change or continuity?
• By what standard should we judge?
• Is the importance of an event driven more by its size and scope or by our proximity and perspective?
• Will the backlash be more important than the trend?
• How wrong can a correct conclusion be before it is rejected? How much truth can cause a wrong conclusion to be accepted?
• Under what conditions would their position be yours and your position be theirs?
• If we scan broadly enough to understand the context, can we still focus deep enough to understand the issue? And vice versa?
• In real world risk assessment, how reliable are estimates of either consequences or probabilities?
• If nearly every surprise was predicted by someone, why are we so often surprised?
• Will the context overshadow the specific matter?
• Is it better to optimize for trends or hedge assuming change?
• Should consequences trump probabilities, i.e., the precautionary principle?
• If observation changes outcomes, how do we know we got it right?
• Why is the worst-case scenario often not the worst case?
• Could the unknown outweigh the known? How would we know?
• Which is more suspicious, round numbers or precise numbers?
• What is more important, the rule or the exception to the rule?
• What is a balanced trade if values are incommensurate and asymmetrical?
• When are trends or ratios more important than actual values?
• If time flies, what is near term? long term? the actionable horizon?
• If there are no good data, what is the basis for decision?
• If you are right but unpersuasive, how right can you really be?
• Why do we so often confuse cause, effect, coincidence, confluence, and confounding?
• If intense polarization occurs most when the facts are least clear, how do we read conflicting displays of confidence?
• Do we debate more often about consequences vs. probabilities rather than about composite risk?
• When does failure to state the obvious result in its being neglected in a decision? When does too much good information overload decision makers?
• How strong must conflicting evidence be to cause us to reject common sense?
• If the spatial and temporal attention span of decision makers and publics are limited, how do we avoid either overload or neglect?
• What is the strategy when the other side knows that we know that they know that we know, and so on?

Heuristic methods are experience-based techniques for problem solving, learning, and discovery or mental short cuts to ease the cognitive load of making a decision. Where an exhaustive search is impractical, heuristic methods can be used to find a satisfactory solution; examples include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, intuitive judgment, or common sense.